Photo : INTS KALNINS/REUTERS
16 November 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #359
War in Ukraine: Day 265
By Sandeep Ganesh
War on the Ground
On 15 November, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his G20 address reinstated Ukraine’s intention to end war fairly based on the UN charter and international law. He stressed that Ukraine should not reach peace while compromising its sovereignty, territory, and independence. One of the major fallout from the war food insecurity, he wanted the grain initiative to be extended. On the Energy security, he reported on Ukraine’s survival on about 40 per cent, with its energy infrastructure destroyed by Russian strikes.
On 15 November, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, traced the Russian forces movement. It said that Russia kept the temporarily captured territories, to concentrate their efforts on restraining the Ukraine defence forces and to conduct offensive actions in the Bakhmut, Avdivv and Novopavli direction. In the recent observation, while Russia had launched four missiles and 23 air strikes and launched more than 70 attacks from rocket salvo systems. The Ukrainian Fores struck the enemy 21 times, 18 areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, and three positions of Russia’s anti-aircraft missile systems.
On 15 November, according to Ukraine’s Operational Command South, Head, Nataliia Humeniuk, the Russian forces were observed to be moving 15-20 kilometers to the left bank of the Dnipro River. The Russian troops had deserted even the fortified set on the east bank of the Dnipro River had advanced deeper to consider the long-range artillery of the armed forces of Ukraine.
On 15 November, “Volodymyr Kudrytskyi” on a Facebook post said that the energy facility that provided energy to the Kherson and Mykolaiv region no longer exists as the Autotransformers each weighing 250 tons were blown up. The Ukrenergo, together with the Ukrainian Central Bank, the State Emergency Service and Oblenergo, are already working out schemes for Kherson.
On 15 November, a Ukrainian military spokesman Yuriy Ihnat claimed that a shortage of missiles further hampers Russian strikes because it's experiencing a lack of cruise and ballistic missiles, Russia is especially short of Iskanders, X555, X101 missiles and Kalibr missiles. Russia shot 15 Kalibr cruise missiles in October, which was not used in November.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 15 November, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the side-lines of the G20 summit in Indonesia said: “Conflict in Ukraine in hybrid war,” in which Russia is facing the wrath of the West triggered crises. He provided examples of the EU’s move to train about 15000 troops in the next two years arming and funding Ukrainian troops, supplying intelligence and assisting with identifying targets.
On 15 November, The Russian Defence Ministry reported that Russian armed forces destroyed up to 1400 Ukrainian troops during the battles for Pavlovka. The two Su-25 aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters were shot down. This was announced by the official representative of the Russian Defence Ministry, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkav. He stated that with the success of the Russian troops, the settlement of Pavlovka in DPR was freed.
On 15 November, Zvezda reported that the Russian Ministry of Defence will pay 300,000 Roubles to Russians for downed planes. This payment would be made for the destruction of equipment of the Ukraine armed forces. They would be paid 200,000 for a helicopter, for a destroyed tank and servicemen would receive 100,000 Roubles for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UVA) 50,000. The new recruited soldiers will receive payments for December ahead of schedule, for which 300,000 personnel would be called up as part of the mobilization program.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 15 November, After the alleged attack on Poland territory by Russia killing two people, Poland is likely to invoke NATO’S Article 4. The article states that if any member is threatened then a collective decision will be taken by NATO. This incident took place in Poland along the border area with Ukraine just six km away from the border. US President has said that Poland’s blast may not be due to a missile fired from Russia.
On 15 November, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban convened the National Defence Council meeting over Poland Missile reports after crude shipments on the Druzhba pipeline were suspended.
On 15 November, ahead of the winter, Germany has reached 100 per cent storage capacity of gas. This milestone was reached on the same day as Germany opened a new quay dedicated to importing of LNG by sea as an alternative to Russian gas. To avoid an energy shortage Germany temporarily reactivated old oil and coal-fired power stations and extended the life spans of Germany’s last three nuclear power plants.
On 15 November, Germany set up a hub in Slovakia to repair arms for Ukraine said German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht. This hub is to be set up to provide service and repair weapons it has delivered to Ukraine. Defence Minister of Slovakia Jaroslav Nad said repair work would start in the next weeks to focus on howitzers and anti-aircraft systems.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 15 November, at the G20 summit, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for dialogue and diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine war. He stated that we as a world should find a way to return to the path of a ceasefire in Kyiv.
On 15 November, at the G20 summit, the leaders condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine through a draft declaration. They stressed over the risks to global food security by escalating tensions, and emphasised the need for the independence of central banks to ensure they put their best efforts to curb soaring inflation and possible recession in 2023, and human suffering.
References
“Zelensky at G20 summit: If Russia wants to end this war, let it prove it with actions”, Ukrinform, 15, November 2022
“Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Facebook, 15 November 2022
“Volodymyr Kudrytskyi”, Facebook, 15 November 2022
“Enemy leaving equipped lines on east bank of Dnipro River Humeniuk,” Uniform, 15 November 2022.
“Missile Shortage Hampers Further Russian Strikes,” Kyiv Post, 15 November 2022
“Lavrov said that Russia does not refuse negotiations, this is done by Ukraine,” Tass, 15 November 2022
“Conflict in Ukraine is hybrid war- Lavrov", RT, 15 November 2022
“The Ministry of Defense announced the continuation of the offensive after taking control of Pavlovka”, Lenta, 15 November 2022
“Mobilized will be paid for success in battle”, Lenta, 15 November 2022
“Poland likely to invoke NATO's Article 4, will raise missile blast with UN – officials,” Reuters, 15 November 2022
“Hungary's Defence Council Meeting Over Poland Missile Reports,” Barrons, 15 November 2022
“Germany's gas storage levels hit 100% capacity,” DW, 15 November 2022
“Germany to set up hub in Slovakia to repair arms for Ukraine,” Reuters, 15 November 2022
“At G20 summit, PM Modi calls for dialogue and diplomatic solution to Ukraine war: Key points,” Times of India, 15 November 2022
“Most G20 members condemn Russia's war in Ukraine -draft declaration,” Reuters, 15 November 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav and Madhura S Mahesh
FINLAND
Construction of a 300-megawatt hydrogen plant in Kokkola
On 15 November, Finland’s Aland-based energy company, Flexens, announced at a press conference its plans to build a 300-megawatt hydrogen plant in Kokkola in Central Ostrobothnia. The plant is aimed to be constructed in the Kokkola Industrial Park, an important location for Finland’s chemical production industry. Hydrogen fuels are obtained by using electrolysis on the water to separate hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen can also be processed into green ammonia, used as agricultural fertilizers and fuel for marine engines. Kokkola is located on Finland’s west coast, a suitable place for the energy-intensive electrolysis process due to the place being a hub for wind energy. The cost of the hydrogen plant is EUR 500 million and will be functional only in 2027. A nationwide hydrogen network developed by Gasgrid Finland is planned to deliver green energy throughout the country by 2030. (“Åland firm announces plans for Kokkola hydrogen plant,” yle.fi, 15 November 2022)
SWEDEN
The Riksbank faces inflation pressure despite its slow pace
On 15 November, Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, faced underlying price pressure due to inflation. The Riksbank’s Deputy Governor, Martin Floden, said the inflation rate was higher than the bank predicted. There has been a slowdown in inflation in Sweden due to a reduction in energy prices. The electricity prices decreased by 24 per cent between September and October. The consumer price index went down from 9.7 per cent in September to 9.3 per cent in October. However, Floden added that the central bank should deal with the underlying inflation pressure. (“Swedish inflation slows as energy prices drop,” THE LOCAL se, 15 November 2022; “Swedish c.bank's Floden: we need to deal with the core inflation pressure,” Reuters, 15 November 2022)
TURKEY
Kurdish groups deny involvement in Istanbul blast
On 14 November, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its offshoot Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) denied any involvement in the blast that rocked Istanbul on 13 November. This comes as Turkey accused the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia to be behind that attack. Turkish police have arrested a Syrian woman who has confessed to being behind the attack and additional 46 people have been detained for questioning. The Syrian woman is allegedly a PKK-trained “special intelligence officer” who entered Turkey from the Syrian-Turkish border town of Afrin. (“Istanbul blast: Kurdish groups deny involvement as Turkey detains dozens over 'terror attack',” Euronews, 15 November 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Slovenia to buy Algerian gas to secure its gas requirements
On 16 November, Slovenian Infrastructure Minister Bojan Kumar and Algerian Minister of Energy and Mining Mohamed Arkab signed a deal through which Slovenia will buy approximately 300 million cubic meters of natural gas from Algeria. The flow of gas will happen through pipelines in Tunisia and Italy from 01 January 2023. The three-year deal will facilitate gas flow from Algerian energy company Sonatrach to Slovenian energy trader Geoplin. This purchase will cover a third of Slovenia’s gas needs and reduce dependency on Russian gas. (“Slovenia secures Algerian gas to cover third of its needs,” EURACTIV, 16 November 2022)
The EU backs India’s call for fossil fuel phase-down as a part of COP27 deal
On 15 November, EU Climate Policy Chief Frans Timmermans said that the EU supports India’s call for fossil fuel phase-down as a part of the COP27 deal provided it does not affect previous agreements on reducing coal. Timmermans said: "But we also have to make sure that this call does not diminish the earlier agreements we had on phasing down coal, so if it comes on top of what we already agreed in Glasgow, then the EU will support in this proposal." Countries that are rich in fossil fuel have voiced their opposition for this proposal saying that the term “phase-down” should be defined and should not “demonise” fossil fuels. Timmermans outlined that the EU looks not to dictate a country’s energy purchases but to send warnings on investment in fossil fuels. (“EU supports COP27 call to phase down all fossil fuels,” Reuters, 15 November 2022)